5
Evaluate
Outbreak Simulation Project
Project Overview
"Design and analyze an epidemiological simulation to evaluate how indoor air quality interventions could change the course of an outbreak in your school."
Project Requirements
Part 1: SEIR Model (40%)
- Build SEIR model for school population
- Use realistic parameters for a respiratory pathogen
- Calculate R0 and validate model behavior
Part 2: Intervention Scenarios (40%)
Model at least three scenarios:
- Baseline: Current ventilation rates
- Enhanced ventilation: 2x current ACH
- Portable air cleaners: Add 5 eACH
- Combined: Ventilation + filtration + masks
Part 3: Policy Recommendations (20%)
- Compare total infections, peak timing, duration
- Cost-effectiveness analysis
- Written policy brief with recommendations
Deliverables
Technical Report
- Model description and parameters
- Validation of baseline model
- Intervention analysis results
- Comparison graphs and tables
- Policy recommendations
Spreadsheet Model
- SEIR simulation with adjustable parameters
- Graphs showing epidemic curves
- Summary statistics for each scenario
- Clear documentation
Assessment Rubric
| Criterion | Excellent (4) | Proficient (3) | Developing (2) | Beginning (1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model Accuracy | Correct equations, realistic parameters, validated behavior | Correct equations, minor issues | Some equation errors | Model not functional |
| Intervention Analysis | Comprehensive comparison, quantitative analysis | Good comparison, adequate analysis | Limited analysis | Incomplete |
| Recommendations | Evidence-based, practical, well-justified | Good recommendations | Weak justification | No clear recommendations |
| Communication | Clear, professional, well-organized | Clear with minor issues | Unclear in places | Difficult to follow |
Unit Summary
This unit has developed mathematical tools for understanding disease transmission and evaluating interventions. From basic SIR dynamics to the Wells-Riley airborne transmission model, these frameworks show how indoor air quality directly affects infection risk. The simulation project demonstrates how epidemiological models can inform real policy decisions about ventilation, filtration, and other protective measures.